TSOT012 Covidity Lividity - analysis and data
May 09, 2020, 08:52 AM
1:22: Summary; 2:44: Headlines I give the middle finger to; 4:33: They’re closing WHAT?; 11:10: Phased and Confused; 21:55: Kentucky Case Study; 30:45: Memory Hole; 32:10: Asymptomatic – revisit; 33:15: Test Kit Fallibility; 39:40: More on “Phase IV”; 54:50 Ohio; 66:57: Wrap-up: Versus Flu, P-R-S – a new take, A NYC statistical inconsistency / bread crumb.
1:22 Summary
6,501 in Kansas, 152 deaths, 608 hospitalizations, 41,207 negative.
~ 269K deaths on the planet. Allegedly 77K in U.S. (even though not a week ago, it went from 61K or 64K to 37K, a day or two after which Trump says he expects 100K).
20.5M jobs lost in April.
2:44 Headlines I give the middle finger to today… “Emergency Coffin Shipments arriving in Brazil.” U.S. News and World Report.
Expected usual Brazil deaths per year – 1,378,000. Versus 277K for ALL of planet so far for this.
4:33 They’re closing WHAT? Looking for excuses to disrupt, not support, our food supply??
They have also actively tested a lot of the prisoner population for some idiotic reason.
11:10 Phased and Confused: States opening in phases.
Kansas I:5/4; II: 5/18; III: Around 6/2; IV: Around 6/15.
Moving goal posts?
Pluses and minuses of testing in propaganda terms of more testing and false positive testing
21:55 Kentucky case study. 4.68% mortality? Not at all. So what is that actual denominator for Kentucky?
14% NY State, 21% NYC.
Bay area, 4/17. STANFORD study. Santa Clara. 2.49% to 4.16% infected. Up to 85 times higher than what health officials tallied. 48,000 to 81,000. Versus reported number of 956.
4/20/20: LA County 863 tested. They estimated 4.1% infection. 221K to 442K infected – 28 to 55 times higher than confirmed cases.
4/24 Miami University says ~6 % of Dade County
So for Kentucky, let’s go with 7%. Denominator therefore 7% of 4.4M. => 308,000
294 / 308,000 = .00095. That is 95/1000 of a percent. 100/1000 = 1/10. So just short of that usual 1/10 of one percent given for flu mortality.
30:45 Memory hole – Cali governor said up to 56% of Cali within 6 weeks.
2,585 Cali deaths as of today… (.56 of 39.5M = 22,120,000)
2,585 / 22,120,000 = 0.00012. one one-hundredth of 1 percent mortality.
32:10 Asymptomatic Follow-Up
Florida - ~50% had no symptoms in the 14 to 17 days before the test.
33:15 Test Kits’ Fallibility. UCSF, UC Berkeley researchers 4/27/20
Some 120 available antibody test kits. Tested a dozen of them.
“many of the test kits have false positive rates that may exceed the proportion of people who have been infected in some communities.”
“I realized [the tests] had not been systematically validated and we needed to figure out which ones would really work,” said Patrick Hsu, PhD, an assistant professor of bioengineering at UC Berkeley and investigator at the Innovative Genomics Institute, a joint research collaboration between the two campuses focused on CRISPR.
Some further clarity on the nasopharyngeal versus the antibody tests. From same article, backing up what I said about the idea that nearly no one had symptoms in the Kansas state prison:
“Antibody Tests Complement PCR Diagnostics
"Current diagnostic tests, such as the standard RT-PCR (reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction) test conducted on samples obtained from nasopharyngeal swabs, can tell doctors if someone is currently infected, but antibody tests might be able identify people who have been exposed to the virus even weeks after an initial infection. Antibody tests could be particularly useful for identifying those who have been infected but never showed symptoms. Some controversial studies have suggested that the proportion of such cases could be as high as one in four."
Another doozy from the same article.
"Nevertheless, the team is hampered by the lack of a definitive antibody test with which to compare the many new test kits on the market.
“'One of the cornerstones of lab medicine is that a new test is compared to a definitive reference or gold standard,' Marson said. 'We do not have a gold standard yet for COVID-19 serology testing, so we are amassing data on a standardized set of blood samples and really looking at how each of these tests performs in relationship to all the others.'”
Though not yet peer reviewed.
39:40 Schools in phase IV
TOLD you too big of a decision too early would result in "leaders" doubling down.
Further, why? How?
Despite numbers saying old people are overwhelmingly who is at risk for death.
50:02 “As of this week, more than 19,000... deaths have been associated with long-term care facilities, according to data from 42 states collected by NBC News.”
WHO: Half of all ... deaths in Europe have happened in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.
51:45 (A little older) --> Kaiser: “Our data collection effort finds that in the 23 states that publicly report death data as of April 23, 2020, there have been over 10,000 reported deaths due to [this] in long-term care facilities (including residents and staff), representing 27% of deaths due to [this] in those states. . . . In six states reporting data, deaths in long-term care facilities account for over 50% of all [the deaths from this] (Delaware, Massachusetts, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Utah; Table 2).”
MSN "Senior Care Homes Source of Nearly Half of All California [deaths from this], Data Shows."
May 9.
"At least 1,276 people have died after being infected with the [disease] in skilled nursing or assisted living facilities in California, accounting for more than 49% of total fatalities reported by the state."
54:50 Ohio Case study.
Ohio, 4/16/20. The state has confirmed 8,239 positive cases with 2,331 hospitalizations and 373 deaths, according to the state health department. More than 855,000 people have filed for unemployment benefits in the state, according to the Department of Labor.
Ohio updated 5/8/20… 1306 / 23,016 total confirmed. 5.7%.
Only 23,016 infected out of 11.5M? So only 2/10 of one percent infected? Yuhright.
Let’s just go with a fairly conservative 6% infected. That means .06*11.5M = 690,000.
1,306/690,000 = 0.00189. So not far from 2/10 of a percent mortality rate.
But so many Ohio dead were from long-term care centers
But subtract 500 – see below. So 806 / 23,016 = 3.5% using just confirmed cases.
806/690,000 = 0.001168. Just over 1/10 of one percent – order of magnitude of flu.
60:04 OHIO nursing facilities deaths:
"Close to 500 residents of long-term care centers have died of [this] in the past three weeks, according to data released by the state this week."
. . .
"Overall, the nursing home deaths reported since April 15 account for 40% of all the virus-related deaths in Ohio since the first one was reported in mid-March."
66:57 Versus flu:
KS 2.9M/335M * 61,000 = 528 deaths. Versus 152 to date.
Kentucky 4.4M/335M * 61,000 = 801 deaths. Versus 294 to date.
68:40 Problem – reaction – solution Tyson's corollary to it.
71:17 NYC Numbers: 7500 “of”, 4000 “with”, versus only 3000 higher total number of deaths.
6,501 in Kansas, 152 deaths, 608 hospitalizations, 41,207 negative.
~ 269K deaths on the planet. Allegedly 77K in U.S. (even though not a week ago, it went from 61K or 64K to 37K, a day or two after which Trump says he expects 100K).
20.5M jobs lost in April.
2:44 Headlines I give the middle finger to today… “Emergency Coffin Shipments arriving in Brazil.” U.S. News and World Report.
Expected usual Brazil deaths per year – 1,378,000. Versus 277K for ALL of planet so far for this.
4:33 They’re closing WHAT? Looking for excuses to disrupt, not support, our food supply??
They have also actively tested a lot of the prisoner population for some idiotic reason.
11:10 Phased and Confused: States opening in phases.
Kansas I:5/4; II: 5/18; III: Around 6/2; IV: Around 6/15.
Moving goal posts?
Pluses and minuses of testing in propaganda terms of more testing and false positive testing
21:55 Kentucky case study. 4.68% mortality? Not at all. So what is that actual denominator for Kentucky?
14% NY State, 21% NYC.
Bay area, 4/17. STANFORD study. Santa Clara. 2.49% to 4.16% infected. Up to 85 times higher than what health officials tallied. 48,000 to 81,000. Versus reported number of 956.
4/20/20: LA County 863 tested. They estimated 4.1% infection. 221K to 442K infected – 28 to 55 times higher than confirmed cases.
4/24 Miami University says ~6 % of Dade County
So for Kentucky, let’s go with 7%. Denominator therefore 7% of 4.4M. => 308,000
294 / 308,000 = .00095. That is 95/1000 of a percent. 100/1000 = 1/10. So just short of that usual 1/10 of one percent given for flu mortality.
30:45 Memory hole – Cali governor said up to 56% of Cali within 6 weeks.
2,585 Cali deaths as of today… (.56 of 39.5M = 22,120,000)
2,585 / 22,120,000 = 0.00012. one one-hundredth of 1 percent mortality.
32:10 Asymptomatic Follow-Up
Florida - ~50% had no symptoms in the 14 to 17 days before the test.
33:15 Test Kits’ Fallibility. UCSF, UC Berkeley researchers 4/27/20
Some 120 available antibody test kits. Tested a dozen of them.
“many of the test kits have false positive rates that may exceed the proportion of people who have been infected in some communities.”
“I realized [the tests] had not been systematically validated and we needed to figure out which ones would really work,” said Patrick Hsu, PhD, an assistant professor of bioengineering at UC Berkeley and investigator at the Innovative Genomics Institute, a joint research collaboration between the two campuses focused on CRISPR.
Some further clarity on the nasopharyngeal versus the antibody tests. From same article, backing up what I said about the idea that nearly no one had symptoms in the Kansas state prison:
“Antibody Tests Complement PCR Diagnostics
"Current diagnostic tests, such as the standard RT-PCR (reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction) test conducted on samples obtained from nasopharyngeal swabs, can tell doctors if someone is currently infected, but antibody tests might be able identify people who have been exposed to the virus even weeks after an initial infection. Antibody tests could be particularly useful for identifying those who have been infected but never showed symptoms. Some controversial studies have suggested that the proportion of such cases could be as high as one in four."
Another doozy from the same article.
"Nevertheless, the team is hampered by the lack of a definitive antibody test with which to compare the many new test kits on the market.
“'One of the cornerstones of lab medicine is that a new test is compared to a definitive reference or gold standard,' Marson said. 'We do not have a gold standard yet for COVID-19 serology testing, so we are amassing data on a standardized set of blood samples and really looking at how each of these tests performs in relationship to all the others.'”
Though not yet peer reviewed.
39:40 Schools in phase IV
TOLD you too big of a decision too early would result in "leaders" doubling down.
Further, why? How?
Despite numbers saying old people are overwhelmingly who is at risk for death.
50:02 “As of this week, more than 19,000... deaths have been associated with long-term care facilities, according to data from 42 states collected by NBC News.”
WHO: Half of all ... deaths in Europe have happened in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.
51:45 (A little older) --> Kaiser: “Our data collection effort finds that in the 23 states that publicly report death data as of April 23, 2020, there have been over 10,000 reported deaths due to [this] in long-term care facilities (including residents and staff), representing 27% of deaths due to [this] in those states. . . . In six states reporting data, deaths in long-term care facilities account for over 50% of all [the deaths from this] (Delaware, Massachusetts, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Utah; Table 2).”
MSN "Senior Care Homes Source of Nearly Half of All California [deaths from this], Data Shows."
May 9.
"At least 1,276 people have died after being infected with the [disease] in skilled nursing or assisted living facilities in California, accounting for more than 49% of total fatalities reported by the state."
54:50 Ohio Case study.
Ohio, 4/16/20. The state has confirmed 8,239 positive cases with 2,331 hospitalizations and 373 deaths, according to the state health department. More than 855,000 people have filed for unemployment benefits in the state, according to the Department of Labor.
Ohio updated 5/8/20… 1306 / 23,016 total confirmed. 5.7%.
Only 23,016 infected out of 11.5M? So only 2/10 of one percent infected? Yuhright.
Let’s just go with a fairly conservative 6% infected. That means .06*11.5M = 690,000.
1,306/690,000 = 0.00189. So not far from 2/10 of a percent mortality rate.
But so many Ohio dead were from long-term care centers
But subtract 500 – see below. So 806 / 23,016 = 3.5% using just confirmed cases.
806/690,000 = 0.001168. Just over 1/10 of one percent – order of magnitude of flu.
60:04 OHIO nursing facilities deaths:
"Close to 500 residents of long-term care centers have died of [this] in the past three weeks, according to data released by the state this week."
. . .
"Overall, the nursing home deaths reported since April 15 account for 40% of all the virus-related deaths in Ohio since the first one was reported in mid-March."
66:57 Versus flu:
KS 2.9M/335M * 61,000 = 528 deaths. Versus 152 to date.
Kentucky 4.4M/335M * 61,000 = 801 deaths. Versus 294 to date.
68:40 Problem – reaction – solution Tyson's corollary to it.
71:17 NYC Numbers: 7500 “of”, 4000 “with”, versus only 3000 higher total number of deaths.