Agri Market Outlook - Livestock

Episode 387,   Feb 15, 2023, 07:00 AM

2022 saw some historic highs for livestock, dairy and cereals. However, as we enter a new year, the position of the world has shifted. Concerns over demand as the global economy battles inflation has left us with supply levels which look ample.

In this episode, John Bates speaks to some of AHDB’s market analysts to find out what impact this will have on the beef, lamb, pork and dairy sectors, as they discuss the latest Agri market outlook for livestock.

Timestamps
02:06 - Beef
05:24 - Lamb
09:44 - Pork
12:28 - Dairy

Guests
Hannah Clarke, Senior Analyst (Red Meat)
Freya Shuttleworth, Analyst (Livestock & Dairy)
Patty Clayton, Lead Analyst (Dairy)

Agri market outlook
AHDB’s latest Agri market outlook looks in detail at the issues and shifting consumer behaviours. It’s produced every six months and examines the factors that will affect farm businesses, helping levy payers plan and budget for what may lay ahead.

Key findings for the livestock sectors:

Beef 
  • Production to grow slightly in 2023 due to higher cattle availability, by an estimated 0.6%
  • Consumption forecast to ease by 2% as cost-of-living pressures consumers
  • Imports expected to fall by 2%, driven by easing domestic demand
  • Exports could grow slightly by 3%, reflective of the domestic market balance
Lamb
  • An increase in production is forecast for 2023, in the region of +8-9% year-on-year, driven by higher carry-over and a broadly stable lamb crop
  • Consumption is expected to weaken, linked to recessionary pressures and tighter consumer budgets
  • Imports are forecast to ease by around 5% year-on-year, driven by weaker domestic demand
  • Exports are forecast to grow in line with the projected domestic market balance, potentially by over 15%
Pork
  • Pig meat production is forecast to decline by up to 15% year on year in 2023, driven by a reduction in clean pig kill in the first half of the year, following a significant drop in the breeding herd
  • A gradual recovery in the breeding herd is expected, with numbers predicted to increase by 7,000 head between June 2022 and June 2023
  • Imports are expected to grow to match the gap left by reduced domestic supplies, meanwhile exports are projected to decline as available domestic supplies tighten.
  • Domestic demand continues to ease, driven by the cost-of-living crisis reducing retail sales and eating-out demand
Dairy
  • GB milk production is forecast to record marginal growth in 2023 in the region of 0.3%. However, there is some risk of a contraction in production if margins deteriorate
  • Despite some recent signs of lower inflation in agricultural input costs, replacement costs through 2023 will remain high, putting pressure on cash flows
  • Global dairy demand is likely to remain challenged by low economic growth, although there is potential for improved import demand from China later in the year
  • Domestic demand is also expected to be impacted by a squeeze on consumer incomes, with all products seeing lower sales
  • Farmgate prices are expected to decline in the first half of 2023, with some potential for this to abate in the second half if inflation subsides and demand recovers
Useful links
Get in touch
If you have any comments about this podcast, would like to be a guest because you have something of interest to say to levy payers, or to suggest a topic for a future episode, please get in touch: foodandfarming@ahdb.org.uk

We'd love to know what you think of our podcasts. If you’d like to give your feedback, please complete our short questionnaire, which will help us to improve the podcast on an ongoing basis, or email: foodandfarming@ahdb.org.uk. 
 
This episode was produced and edited by Kate Herrick, Marcomms Executive (Dairy).
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