BONUS: Encouraging EV Adoption — The Carrot Or The Stick?

Depending on which headline you read, the electric vehicle market in America is either entering a long Winter, is at a crossroads or is taking a short pause before explosive growth.

The federal tax credit expired on 30 September 2025, and the consequences arrived with brutal clarity: fourth-quarter EV sales plunged 46 per cent compared with the third quarter, dropping to levels not seen since late 2022.

Ford announced a $19.5 billion write-down on its electric ambitions and halted production of the F-150 Lightning. General Motors followed with $6 billion in charges related to unwinding EV investments. The Detroit giants, once racing towards electrification, now pivot back towards hybrids and traditional powertrains. America had chosen the carrot approach — generous tax incentives to pull consumers into EVs — and when that carrot disappeared, the market collapsed.

The timing could not be worse. Europe wrestles with its own crisis of confidence, watering down its 2035 combustion engine ban to a 90 per cent emissions reduction target after intense industry pressure. China phases out subsidies even as it mandates ever-stricter efficiency standards. The global automotive industry faces a fundamental question: can consumers be enticed into EVs through incentives alone, or do markets require the regulatory stick of mandates and bans? The answer, it turns out, depends less on ideology than on execution, consistency and time.