The Polls, The Upset, and Wisconsin's Road to 2028

Jamal Simmons and Matt Butler are joined by longtime Wisconsin operative Joe Zepecki to break down one of the wildest primaries of the cycle: David Crowley's stunning comeback from 20 points down to beat Francesca Hong for the Democratic nomination for governor. Zepecki explains how the Crowley campaign clawed back, why the polls weren't as wrong as they looked, and what it'll take to unite Hong and Crowley voters ahead of a must-win fall matchup against MAGA Republican Tom Tiffany. They dig into why this race is about far more than one governorship — it's about who certifies Wisconsin's 2028 presidential results and whether Democrats can finally win a blue trifecta and redraw fairer congressional maps. Plus: lessons on polling primaries versus general elections, Rebecca Cooke's rematch in WI-3, Pete Buttigieg's swing through the state, and why every 2028 hopeful needs to prove they can win in Wisconsin.

Topics Covered
David Crowley's comeback from 20 points down to beat Francesca Hong in the Wisconsin governor primary
Why the polls weren't as far off as the final margin suggested
The 3,850-vote margin and how razor-thin the race really was
Uniting Hong and Crowley voters into one coalition for the fall
Wisconsin's stakes: certifying the 2028 election and winning a blue trifecta
Tom Tiffany's record — supporting Ken Paxton's 2020 election lawsuit and voting against certifying Arizona and Pennsylvania's electors
Why polling primaries is harder than polling general elections
State Navigate's polling methodology and the debate over weighting young voters
Bernie Sanders and AOC staying out of the primary
Rebecca Cooke's rematch against Derek Van Orden in Wisconsin's 3rd District
Pete Buttigieg's town hall for Cooke and his "Win the Era" PAC
Which 2028 hopefuls need to prove themselves in Wisconsin
The history of Wisconsin's primary calendar and why it moved to April